It’s that time of year again. The draft is coming up with the combine and Senior Bowl (as well as many Pro Days) having already taken place. I’m going to start my writing this season by analyzing my position groups and seeing where I would need to add through the draft and free agency.
Stats according to PFF.
QB PJ Walker, Drew Lock
With Russel Wilson gone from Seattle I was so convinced that Drew Lock would be the guy to replace him, but oh how horrifically wrong I was. Geno Smith had one hell of a season, got himself a decent deal and Lock played a grand total of 0 snaps.
So instead PJ Walker was my guy this season and he played less than 300 snaps. At least, however, that gives me a basis of where he could have been if he had played a full season.He would have been 30th in the league in total offence (between Russel Wilson and Matt Ryan), 30th in passing and 13th in run. I’m going to just average those numbers out, giving me…
…the 24th best QB.
RB Zack Moss, Antonio Gibson, Jarret Patterson, JaMycal Hasty
Unfortunately Antonio Gibson took a big step back from being a 1000 yrd rusher in 2021 and only contributed about half as much this year. Jarett Patterson also went from around 200 to under 100 yds. Moss Stayed consistent in yards while his TD numbers dropped, this was due to the Colts not using him as a goalline thumper like the Bills did. Hasty added some nice numbers too, but nothing special. I think what this is showing me, is that I am missing a true RB1.
WR Hunter Refrow, DeAndre Hopkins, James Proche, Shi Smith, Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry, Gunnar Olszewski
Similarly to Gibson, Renfrow’s numbers dropped from being a 1000 yrd receiver to 330, some of which was due to injury that saw his snap could halved as well as the Raiders adding Adams to be their WR1. Hopkins was injured again, with Allen robinson and Jarvis Landry not having the impact at their new Teams, which I would have hoped for.
TE Adam Trautman, Tommy Tremble, Stephen Sullivan
I am pretty sure that I know how I will be reshaping this group in the offseason. Tremble is a blocking beast, one of the best TEs in the League at that. Trautman is a good, not great receiver and would make a good TE3. I need a receiving TE1.
OL Bernhard Raimann, Samuel Cosmi, Joe Thuney, Quinn Meinerz, Tyler Linderbaum
To find out the rating of my OL compared to other OLines in the NFL I very simply took the offensive grades of my 5 linemen and averaged them out, then did the same for the other OLines in the league. Here are the top 5 average OLine grades:
1.Falcons: Tackle(86.6, 77.2), Guard(95.0, 64.3), Center(65.9) = 77.8
2.Eagles: Tackle(84.8, 81.7, 61.0), Guard(71.7), Center(89.4) = 77.72
3.Me: Tackle(73.3, 71.6), Guard(78.4, 77.7), Center(74.6) = 75.12
4.Minnesota: Tackle(90.4, 82.7), Guard(73.4, 57.0), Center(67.5) = 74.2
5.Ravens: Tackle(78.6, 73.1, 69.4), Guard(74.7), Center(74.6) = 74.08
Is this 100% indicative of the best OL in the league: no! At the end of the day scheme and playcalling is going to make a huge difference to how an OL performs. Simply how long the QB holds onto the ball is going to make a big difference on whether sacks are possible or not.
What does make a big impact, in my opinion, is the level of play across the line. That’s why a team like the Falcons grades out so high boosted by big individual performances by Lindstrom(95) and McGary(86.6), but also has two players around the 60s mark, and weren’t regarded as the best OL in the league. Whereas a team like the Eagles didn’t have anyone over 90, but 3 players over 80 and just one player in the 60s = consistently high level play. My interpretation of the grades is as follows: 90s(elite), 80s(very good), 70s(above average), 60s(average), 50s(below average).
As such I am very happy with my OL, which graded out all in the 70s. Something not achieved by any other OL in the league. The best past was my interior where I had the 5th and 6th best graded Guard as well as the 6th best graded Center. In reality I believe that this would boost any run- and passing game and would give me…
…the 3rd best OL in the league.
So from our team we have the following:
QB (24th in the League)
Then we have to add the statistics of the skill position players:
Rushing yards: 1349 (31st)
Receiving yards: 3021 (27th)
Total Yards: 4370 (32nd)
Total Points: 270 (24 TDs + 34 FGs) (32nd)
Average everything out: Offense is 25th in the League
- A starting QB
- Top teir skill position players, which are true no.1s
- OL is one of the best in the League
How to proceed
I need a QB who can be in the top half of the table at least.
To improve my team I will also need to do a reshuffling at the skill positions, meaning that current 1s may drop to being 2s, 2s to being 3s and 3s to being out of the team. I need to keep raising my floor and adding players who have the potential to be true no.1s.
If a top tackle becomes available I have to consider adding them to continue improving my OLine, that way I can focus on other positions in the draft.