So the first round has come and gone without many surprises. I project my draft by taking the picks that I would get for trading, but then when it comes to the draft leaving the draft order exactly the same. Otherwise it gets way too complex and I only do this for fun. That is why you will hear me talking about where guys went in actual reality and who I would have picked at the spots, without factoring in any team moves and how that would have affected who is available.
So back to the first round, biggest surprise perhaps was Clelin Ferrell getting drafted so high. The Giants taking Jones instead of Haskins as the no.2 QB off the board might have intrigued some too, but the connection to the Mannings is there so I’m sure they had their homework down. Due to those moves Josh Allen slipped out of the top 5, which not many would have thought. I would have also thought that Lock would have been taken in the 1st round and feel like people were quite conservative on QBs this year.
Pick 1: Round 1 – No. 15 overall
I realised that I was pushing it to get Bush at that no.15 spot, and really liked him, so not surprised he went in the top 10. Just missed out on Gary as well as he was drafted in the 12th spot by the Packers, but luckily Burns was still available and I would have drafted him at 15th – he ended up going 16th, so that was pretty accurate. In the end this is the better selection anyway, because Gary is too similar to weapons we already have in Clark and Green (remember in my draft Clark wasn’t traded – Wilson was). Lindstrom (G) also went higher than I thought he would (14th to the Falcons).
Pick 2: Round 1 – No. 30 overall
Between that and the 30th pick, Bradbury and Simmons (my other 1 round graded talents) were taken straight after each other at 18 and 19. From my player analysis two more talents followed straight after Noah Fant (TE) at 20 and Darnell Savage (S) at 21. I feel like both are an overdraft for the first round, but I have also highlighted that both have huge upside, and in the long term they could prove to be worth the pick – I am just not willing to take a player for upside in round 1. Kaleb McGary was also drafted in the 1st round by the Falcons at 31, meaning that they double dipped on OLinemen in the first round, both with guys from my list. The Patriots took my top rated WR in K’Neal Harry at 32.
At 30 I would have been faced with a bit of a dilema: all of my first round graded talents are off the board. So now we go through the progressions: highest needs for the draft, my 2nd-3rd round rated talent, best available with my lists.
QB: Will Grier, Ryan Finley, Tyree Jackson, (Drew Lock)
With Wilson gone of course this is the biggest need. But with the guys available I am not willing to get any in the first round. I have put Lock on here because I thought a team would take him top 10-15, but I guess I was more right when I said he didn’t deserve a first round grade. That hasn’t changed at the end of the first round and I don’t feel like I have to be worried about missing out on all 4 any time soon.
DT: Trysten Hill, Dre’mont Jones
I have 2 guys here who are going to be productive at the next level. Especially Hill is my guy for the 2nd or 3rd round. But again, I just can’t bring myself to get either one in the first.
2nd – 3rd round rated talent
OL: Dalton Risner, Jawaan Taylor
Lindstrom, Bradbury and McGary are gone, leaving only 2 of my top 5 OLinemen. OLine is always something that has a high priority for me in the early rounds of the draft. This is a definite option for the pick, although I really see both more as 2nd round options.
S: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson
He is an alpha and therefore brings the kind of swag you want from a first round guy. But as I mentioned before he is a bit of a SS in a FS body. I can’t justify taking him here, especially because there are some better options deep. I would have taken Savage, at this point because I think he has huge upside – at 20 I think he was overdrafted.
EDGE: Jachai Polite
we have picked up Burns already, I’m not double on a position with plenty of depth.
LB: Ben Burr-Kirvin
due to bush having gone he gets pushed up my draft needs board, not a first rounder though.
WR: N’Keal Harry, Paris Campbell, Andy Isabella
N’Keal Harry and Paris Campbell are both 2nd rounders. Harry is rated as a high 2nd rounder for me, but I have explained why I don’t rate WR high enough to pick someone there so I wouldn’t have snatched him from the Patriots. There are some excellent options deep in the draft.
TE: Jace Sternberger, Josh Oliver
TE is a priority for me, but I am happy to wait on these guys.
According to Gil Brandt on NFL.com
1: Jawaan Taylor (OL)
D.K. Metcalf (WR) – WR is not an option for me
Drew Lock (QB) – I’ve mentioned why there is no QB for me here
4: Cody Ford (T/G)
Greedy Williams (CB) – CB is not interesting until day 3
Paris Campbell (WR)
Byron Murphy (CB)
8: Connor McGovern (OL)
A.J. Brown (WR)
Irv Smith Jr. (TE) – I have other TEs I prefer, later
11: Erik McCoy (C)
Rock Ya-Sin (CB)
Jaylon Ferguson (EDGE) – like I said, not going to double dip
14: Dalton Risner (G/T)
Zach Allen (DE)
Deebo Samuel (WR)
Miles Sanders (RB) – running what? I have enough
David Montgomery (RB)
Nasir Adderly (S) – this guy isn’t even rated as highly as gardner-johnson for me
Riley Ridley (WR)
Position that I covet high in the draft: OL.Then I look at my list compared to the top 20 of the best available and there are two guys there: Taylor and Risner. Taylor is rated higher, but my gut is telling me that he will bring problems, and I just don’t want that on my line. So I pick Dalton Risner.
Risner has experience at Tackle and Center. Is very solid in the run game and I think he will be a high level pro. I think he will be very good at Guard at the next level.
Pick 1: Round 1 – No. 15 overall: Brian Burns (DE)
Pick 2: Round 1 – No. 30 overall: Dalton Risner (OL)
I didn’t get either of my first choices, but got two top players and am generally happy with these selections. getting a top rated DE takes that position almost off the board for me, which is a relief. OL is something I would have taken highly in the second round, but now I am freed up on day 2 to focus on the two biggest needs in the draft DT and QB.
Next article will look at the prospects from my list for the second and third rounds.